{"id":1430,"date":"2014-03-24T18:32:11","date_gmt":"2014-03-24T17:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jutze.com\/?p=1430"},"modified":"2014-03-24T18:46:12","modified_gmt":"2014-03-24T17:46:12","slug":"estimating-the-release-date-of-richard-shindells-next-album","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/?p=1430","title":{"rendered":"Estimating the Release Date of Richard Shindell’s Next Album"},"content":{"rendered":"

Richard Shindell<\/a> has been working on his next album for quite some time now. His fans (that includes me) try to be patient. Several new songs have already made their live debut. The album is supposed to be called “Viceroy Mimic” (VM), but a couple of weeks ago he also mentioned “Same River Once<\/a>” as a contender. Pressed about a release date, Shindell said (during a recent concert in Boston) January 2015. Regardless of this, here’s the statistical perspective – just for fun! The linear trend across all album releases (including live albums, cover albums, Cry, Cry, Cry etc.) suggests that a new album should have been released on November 4, 2013.<\/p>\n

\"Graph:<\/a><\/p>\n

The quadratic trend across Richard’s original studio albums, however, would imply a May 11, 2014 release date for “Viceroy Mimic”. The linear prediction appears to be worse in this case; it the lag between original albums is increasing.<\/p>\n

\"Graph:<\/a><\/p>\n

Given the projected 2015 release, a cubic function might be necessary, soon. Anyway, below you can find the detailed data and the Stata code to replicate the graphs.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Release dates:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Sparrows Point<\/a> (SP) March 20, 1992<\/li>\n
  2. Blue Divide<\/a> (BD) September 25, 1994<\/li>\n
  3. Reunion Hill<\/a> (RH) August 19, 1997<\/li>\n
  4. Cry Cry Cry<\/a> (C3) October 1, 1998 (cover album with Dar Williams and Lucy Kaplansky)<\/li>\n
  5. Somewhere Near Paterson<\/a> (SNP) February 8, 2000<\/li>\n
  6. Courier<\/a> (C) February 12, 2002 (live album)<\/li>\n
  7. Vuelta<\/a> (V) August 24, 2004<\/li>\n
  8. South of Delia<\/a> (SOD) May 10, 2007 (cover album)<\/li>\n
  9. Live at the Chandler Music Hall, Randolph, VT<\/a> (L) January 1, 2008 (live album; I estimated its release date based on an email I got shortly after the album was available online)<\/li>\n
  10. Not Far Now<\/a> (NFN) April 7, 2009<\/li>\n
  11. 13 Songs You May or May Not Have Heard Before<\/a> (13S) November 17, 2011 (mainly re-recordings of old songs; released on Amazon.com on December 15, 2011, but I already bought it during his UK tour back then, so I used an early date of that tour here)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Stata<\/a> code:<\/p>\n

    * release dates of Richard Shindell's albums
    \n* written by Johannes Schult jutze@jutze.com
    \n* last updated 2014-03-24
    \nversion 13.1
    \nset more off
    \nclear
    \nset obs 11
    \ngenerate str album = \"\"
    \ngenerate double releasedate = .
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(3,20,1992) in 1\/1
    \nformat %tdMonth_dd,_CCYY releasedate
    \nreplace album = \"Sparrows Point\" in 1
    \nreplace album = \"Blue Divide\" in 2
    \nreplace album = \"Reunion Hill\" in 3
    \nreplace album = \"Cry Cry Cry\" in 4
    \nreplace album = \"Somewhere Near Paterson\" in 5
    \nreplace album = \"Courier\" in 6
    \nreplace album = \"Vuelta\" in 7
    \nreplace album = \"South of Delia\" in 8
    \nreplace album = \"Live at the Chandler Music Hall\" in 9
    \nreplace album = \"Not Far Now\" in 10
    \nreplace album = \"13 Songs\" in 11
    \nreplace album = \"Live in Randolph, VT\" in 9
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(9,25,1994) in 2
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(8,19,1997) in 3
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(10,1,1998) in 4
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(2,8,2000) in 5
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(2,12,2002) in 6
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(8,24,2004) in 7
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(5,10,2007) in 8
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(1,1,2008) in 9
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(4,7,2009) in 10
    \nreplace releasedate = mdy(11,17,2011) in 11
    \ngen albumnumber = _n
    \ngen RS_original_studio = 0
    \nreplace RS_original_studio = 1 in 1
    \nreplace RS_original_studio = 1 in 2
    \nreplace RS_original_studio = 1 in 3
    \nreplace RS_original_studio = 1 in 5
    \nreplace RS_original_studio = 1 in 7
    \nreplace RS_original_studio = 1 in 10
    \ngen RS_original_studio_number = .
    \nreplace RS_original_studio_number = 1 in 1
    \nreplace RS_original_studio_number = 2 in 2
    \nreplace RS_original_studio_number = 3 in 3
    \nreplace RS_original_studio_number = 4 in 5
    \nreplace RS_original_studio_number = 5 in 7
    \nreplace RS_original_studio_number = 6 in 10
    \n*di mdy(9,25,1994)
    \n*di mdy(1,1,2015)
    \n*di mdy(1,1,1994)
    \nlabel define allalbums 1 \"SP\" 2 \"BD\" 3 \"RH\" 4 \"C3\" 5 \"SNP\" 6 \"C\" 7 \"V\" 8 \"SOD\" 9 \"L\" 10 \"NFN\" 11 \"13S\" 12 \"VM\"
    \nlabel define origalbums 1 \"SP\" 2 \"BD\" 3 \"RH\" 4 \"SNP\" 5 \"V\" 6 \"NFN\" 7 \"VM\"
    \nlabel values albumnumber allalbums
    \nlabel values RS_original_studio_number origalbums
    \nlabel variable albumnumber \"Albums\"
    \nlabel variable RS_original_studio_number \"Original studio albums\"
    \nlabel variable releasedate \"Release dates\"
    \nregress releasedate albumnumber
    \nregress releasedate c.albumnumber c.albumnumber#c.albumnumber
    \nregress releasedate RS_original_studio_number
    \nregress releasedate c.RS_original_studio_number c.RS_original_studio_number#c.RS_original_studio_number
    \n* lin trend all albums
    \ntwoway (scatter releasedate albumnumber) (lfit releasedate albumnumber) (scatteri 19666 12 \"?\", mlabposition(9)), ymlabel(11688(1461)20150, angle(horizontal) grid glcolor(gs15) glpattern(shortdash)) ylabel(12419(1461)20150, angle(horizontal) grid) xlabel(1(1)12, valuelabel grid) title(Richard Shindell's Album Release Dates) subtitle(A Linear Extrapolation (R\u00b2 = .99)) note(L and 13S dates estimated; all other dates from Wikipedia; CC by Johannes Schult) legend(order(1 2))
    \ngraph display Graph, scheme(s1mono)
    \ngraph export rsallalbumslinear.png, as(png) replace
    \n* quad trend original albums
    \ntwoway (scatter releasedate RS_original_studio_number) (qfit releasedate RS_original_studio_number) (scatteri 19854 7 \"?\", mlabposition(9)), ymlabel(11688(1461)20150, angle(horizontal) grid glcolor(gs15) glpattern(shortdash)) ylabel(12419(1461)20150, angle(horizontal) grid) xlabel(1(1)7, valuelabel grid) title(Richard Shindell's Album Release Dates) subtitle(A Quadratic Extrapolation (R\u00b2 > .99)) note(dates from Wikipedia; CC by Johannes Schult) legend(order(1 2))
    \ngraph display Graph, scheme(s1mono)
    \ngraph export rsorigalbumsquad.png, as(png) replace
    \n* predictions for Viceroy Mimic
    \nregress releasedate albumnumber
    \ndi 11326.65+12*694.9364
    \ndi day(19666)
    \ndi month(19666)
    \ndi year(19666)
    \nregress releasedate c.RS_original_studio_number c.RS_original_studio_number#c.RS_original_studio_number
    \ndi 11274.4+7*445.7429+7*7*111.4286
    \ndi day(19854)
    \ndi month(19854)
    \ndi year(19854)
    \nexit
    \n* have a nice day
    \n<\/code><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Richard Shindell has been working on his next album for quite some time now. His fans (that includes me) try to be patient. Several new songs have already made their live debut. The album is supposed to be called “Viceroy Mimic” (VM), but a couple of weeks ago he also mentioned “Same River Once” as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,2],"tags":[40,39,555,355,554,134],"class_list":["post-1430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data-analysis","category-music","tag-graphs","tag-plots","tag-prediction","tag-richard-shindell","tag-scatter-plots","tag-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1430"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1430\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1441,"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1430\/revisions\/1441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jutze.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}