Archive for the ‘Books’ Category.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: The Fault in Our Stars

fishingboatproceeds

[…] The same is true on amazon, where the book’s average rating has actually gone up a bit in the past six months (although not in a statistically significant way). […]

Actually, the ratings have decreased in a statistically significant way (alpha < .05). I used the two most recently archived pages from archive.org, which do not cover exactly 6 months. Still, ratings before 2013-02-03 were higher than those after that date.

  • Before (2110 ratings): mean = 4.76 (SD = 0.014)
  • After (1232 ratings): mean = 4.67 (SD = 0.021)

A t-test (two-sided, unequal variances) yields p = 0.0009 (d = -0.12); and for the non-parametric fans, the Wilcoxon rank-sum (Mann-Whitney) test yields p = 0.0001.

Using 2012-10-19 as dividing date, yields similar results:

  • Before (1051 ratings): mean = 4.77 (SD = 0.020)
  • After (2291 ratings): mean = 4.71 (SD = 0.015)

A t-test (two-sided, unequal variances) yields p = 0.0188 (d = -0.09); the Wilcoxon rank-sum test yields p = 0.0008. Of course, significance testing might be a questionable procedure in this case – and also in general.

This is actually a census of all Amazon ratings, so there’s no need to test whether ratings differ. The sample is the population. However, the written reviews could be regarded as a subsample of the ratings of all readers.

Is it a random sample? I don’t think so. So can we draw proper conclusions from the significance test results? Nah. I won’t provide a comprehensive discussion of the benefits and problems associated with the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). I’ll just name one of my favourite objections, which Cohen (1990, p. 1308) phrased nicely: “The null hypothesis, taken literally (and that’s the only way you can take it in formal hypothesis testing), is always false in the real world.” In the present, the null hypothesis would mean, that average rating of newer readers is exactly the same as the average rating of those who pre-ordered the book etc.

Anyway, the effect size suggests that the drop in ratings is very small, so it should be safe to argue that the book keeps appealing to new readers.

PS: Sorry for nitpicking; this should in no way diminish the article, which I think is highly insightful.

PPS: I spend a good 15 minutes in R trying to beat the data into shape, but I feel much more comfortable in Stata, so I switched and had the analysis in a few minutes. Here’s the do-file in case anyone in curious. (Haha, as if!)

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Thoughts on “The Bestseller Job”

Today’s mail contained a copy of “The Bestseller Job” (by Greg Cox), a novel based on the televion series “Leverage“. I really like “Leverage” and I was sad to learn that its 5th season was going to be the last one. I’m not usually into novels that expand existing series, but on a whim I bought this one. I’m 76 pages in right now. (The book has 291 pages.) It is certainly too early for a final verdict. I just thought I’d put down my first impression, which, by the way, is positive. The writing style matches the editing of the television series; the plot fits the Leverage universe perfectly, and I’m thrilled that 3/4 of the story are still ahead of me. I like it when the summary on the back doesn’t spoil the whole first half of a book, so I was pleasantly surprised how fast “The Bestseller Job” took off. I was even more enthralled to find the crew en route to Germany. Heck, we learn that Parker once had an alias from Stuttgart. And it’s not just these nods to the country I live in, it’s the acurate transition from one medium to another that makes me really happy. Okay, back to reading!

Lektüre 2012

A list of books I finished reading in the last 12 months:

  • Joseph M. Siracusa: Nuclear Weapons – A Very Short Introduction
  • Elisabeth Rank: Und im Zweifel für dich selbst
  • Jennifer E. Smith: Die statistische Wahrscheinlichkeit von Liebe auf den ersten Blick
  • Dan Brown: Das verlorene Symbol
  • Nicholas James: Cancer – A Very Short Introduction
  • Andy McNab: Signal Bravo Two Zero
  • Suzanne Collins: The Hunger Games
  • Suzanne Collins: Catching Fire
  • J. Meade Falkner: Moonfleet
  • J. K. Rowling: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
  • Elisabeth Streit: Renates erster Flug
  • Elisabeth Streit: Renate als Luft-Stewardeß
  • J. K. Rowling: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
  • Gearóid Ó hAllmhuráin: O’Brien Pocket History of Irish Traditional Music
  • Lloyd Alexander: Der Setzerjunge
  • Justin Cronin: The Passage
  • Kai Bird & Martin J. Sherwin: J. Robert Oppenheimer
  • Kevin Brockmeier: The Short History of the Dead
  • John Green: Das Schicksal ist ein mieser Verräter
  • Ian McEwan: Solar
  • Flavia Company: Die Insel der letzten Wahrheit
  • Susanne Schäpler: Schwarzes Blut
  • Shania Twain: From This Moment on
  • John Green: Paper Towns
  • Frank Portman: King Dork
  • Arthur C. Doyle: A Study in Scarlet
  • Ildiko von Kürthy: Unter dem Herzen
  • Arthur C. Doyle: The Sign of Four
  • Laurie R. King: The Beekeeper’s Apprentice

The Fault in The Fault in Our Stars

“Unquestionably the funniest song you will ever hear about THE FAULT IN OUR STARS.” –John Green

This ain’t a book about a ballet dancer
No, it’s a book about a book about cancer
But there is something that is more important
This book mentions Natalie Portman
In 3 out of 25 chapters – I think she’s pretty scarce
That’s the fault in “The Fault in Our Stars”
Yeah that’s the fault in “The Fault in Our Stars”

If you do the math then you will see
22 chapters without Natalie
The ones that mention her are way too short, man!
John Green should have added way more Portman
It wouldn’t have been as difficult as landing a rover on Mars
That’s the fault in “The Fault in Our Stars”
Yeah that’s the fault in “The Fault in Our Stars”

At least the book doesn’t end in the middle of

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Lektüre 2011

Folgende Bücher habe ich 2011 durchgelesen:

  • Steven J. Osterlind & Howard T. Everson: Differential Item Functioning (Second Edition)
  • Terry Pratchett: Nation
  • Malise Ruthven: Der Islam: Eine kurze Einführung
  • David Berlinski: Infinite Ascent: A Short History of Mathematics
  • Jan Weiler: Drachensaat
  • Hans-Peter Beck-Bornholdt & Hans-Hermann Dubben: Der Hund, der Eier legt
  • Christoph Drösser: Stimmt’s? Das große Buch der modernen Legenden
  • Francis Rossi, Rick Parfitt, Mick Wall: The Status Quo Autobiography – XS All Areas
  • Vernor Vinge: A Deepness in the Sky
  • Nick Hornby: Juliet, Naked
  • Andreas von Bülow: Die CIA und der 11. September
  • Isaac Asimov: Der Tausendjahresplan
  • Isaac Asimov: Der galaktische General
  • Isaac Asimov: Alle Wege führen nach Trantor
  • Thilo Sarrazin: Deutschland schafft sich ab
  • Florian Popp: Fern wie die Zeit
  • Judith Schalansky: Der Hals der Giraffe
  • Stefan Siller, Thomas Schmidt: Top Tausend X. Das Buch zur Show
  • Otto Frisch: What Little I Remember
  • Andreas Eschbach: Die Haarteppichknüpfer
  • Michael Lewis: The Big Short – Inside the Doomsday Machine
  • Jennifer Burns: Goddess of the Market – Ayn Rand and the American Right
  • John Madison: Nothing for Ungood

Nun habe ich “Der Hals der Giraffe gelesen”

Obacht, es folgen Spoiler; ich werde also Bezug nehmen, auf das, was im Laufe des Romans “Der Hals der Giraffe” von Judith Schalansky passiert. Bereit? Es passiert praktisch nichts! Ja, gut, ein Bus geht kaputt, die präfontralen Gehirnfunktionenen der Protagonistin scheinen ein wenig nachzulassen, und die Jahreszeiten wechseln. In der Kurzbeschreibung am Anfang wird angekündigt, dass Inge Lohmark, um welche sich die ganze Geschichte dreht, am Ende vom Glauben an Gott Darwin abfallen würde. Selten wurden unangebrachtere Erwartungshaltungen erzeugt. Klar, im Verlauf der Geschichte geht die Selbstkontrolle der Hauptfigur zeitweise verloren – in dem Alter nicht ungewöhnlich. Aber ist das ein Grund, um von einem “antidarwinistischen Manifest” (FAZ) zu reden? Weit gefehlt. Ich finde es geradezu amüsant, dass zwischendurch der Zeitrahmen der (biologischen) Evolution behandelt wird. Jahreszahlen mit so vielen Nullen, dass man sie nur schwerlich fassen kann. Am Ende tappt der Roman selber in genau diese Falle, da die Entwicklungen im Leben einer Einzelperson offenbar als Scheitern der Evolution präsentiert werden sollen. Was natürlich keinen Sinn macht.

Das Buch lebt von dem gewandten, klaren Schreibstil, in dem schön mit Worten gespielt wird. Aber ja, eine Handlung wäre schön gewesen. Fast noch schöner wäre gewesen, wenn gegen Ende der Titel gebende Moment die Grundzüge der Evolutionstheorie korrekt dargestellt worden wären. Die Variation der Halslänge ist zufällig, die Halslänge (tendenziell) vererblich und die Selektion bedingt durch die Passung mit der Umwelt. Das Recken von Hälsen hat in dieser Hinsicht – anders als im Text dargestellt – keinen Einfluss auf die genetische Vererbung (und somit langfristig auf die Entwicklung der Spezies hin zur Langhalsigkeit). Die Parallele, die offenbar gezogen werden soll, zu Entwicklungen im Leben von Inge Lohmark, entbehrt vollkommen ihrer Grundlage, zumal die Anwendung auf Einzelfälle bestenfalls fragwürdig ist. Am ehesten noch wäre ein Ausflug in die Epigenetik sinnvoll. Doch davon findet sich nichts im Text, zumal vorher explizit erwähnt wurde, dass die letzte Fortbildung schon viele Jahre her ist und entsprechend sind solche Ideen an dieser Stelle im Erzählfluss wohl nicht plausibel. (Von Kulturvererbung, beispielsweise im Rahmen der Memetik, ist erst recht nicht einmal der geringste Ansatz zu entdecken.)

Handwerklich ist der Roman somit zwar sehr gelungen, aber gegen Ende dominierte bei mir zunehmend Enttäuschung das Leseerlebnis.

Lektüre 2010

Nicht vergessen: Morgen bin ich von 19.15-19.30 Uhr live im Internet!

Im vergangenen Jahr las ich folgende Bücher:

  • Jonathan Sarfran Froer: Eating Animals
  • Heather Cochran: The Return of Jonah Gray
  • Henryk M. Broder: Kritik der reinen Toleranz
  • Lucy Hawking: Jaded
  • Douglas Adams: The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
  • Jeanette Winterson: The Stone Gods
  • Robert Louis Stevenson: Treasure Island
  • David J. Hand: Statistics – A Very Short Introduction
  • Steve Martin: Born Standing Up
  • Robert Jordan: The Eye of the World
  • Michael Pollan: The Omnivore’s Dilemma
  • Suzanne Collins: Mockingjay
  • Maike Luhmann: Einführung in R
  • Margaret Weis, Tracy Hickman: Dragons of Autumn Twilight
  • J. Scott Long: The Workflow of Data Analysis Using Stata
  • Stephanie Perkins: Anna and the French Kiss

Lektüre 2009

  • Kurt Vonnegut: Cat’s Cradle
  • John Green: An Abundance of Katherines
  • John Green: Looking for Alaska
  • Suzanne Collins: The Hunger Games
  • Dodie Smith: I Capture the Castle
  • Roger Williams: The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect
  • Trevor G. Bond & Christine M. Fox: Applying the Rasch Model: Fundamental Measurement in the Human Sciences
  • Scott Westerfeld: Uglies
  • Sven Plöger: Gute Aussichten für morgen
  • Henry David Thoreau: Walden
  • Mike Oldfield: Changeling
  • Raymond Chandler: The Lady in the Lake
  • Scott Westerfeld: Pretties
  • Suzanne Collins: Catching Fire
  • Jane Austen & Seth Grahame-Smith: Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
  • Scott Westerfeld: Specials
  • Eckart von Hirschhausen: Die Leber wächst mit ihren Aufgaben
  • Edward R. Tufte: The Cognitive Style of PowerPoint: Pitching out Corrupts within
  • Ayn Rand: Three Plays
  • Oscar Wilde: Lady Windermere’s Fan
  • Henryk M. Broder: Hurra, wir kapitulieren!
  • John Green: Paper Towns
  • Vince Ebert: Denken Sie selbst! Sonst tun es andere für Sie
  • Dave Eggers: Weit gegangen
  • Elisabeth Kabatek: Laugenweckle zum Frühstück

Habe ich dieses Jahr wirklich nichts von Terry Pratchett gelesen? Das schreit nach einem Vorsatz für 2010! Erst einmal werde ich aber wohl die fünf, sechs Bücher fertiglesen, die sich hier angefangen türmen (Gibt es intelligentes Leben?, The Greatest Show on Earth, Kritik der reinen Toleranz, Nothing for Ungood, Eine Geschichte von Liebe und Finsternis, American Gods usw.). Literarische Höhepunkte für mich waren 2009 eindeutig die beiden Hunger Games-Bücher sowie Paper Towns. Meine Lieblingsalben kamen von Richard Shindell und den Ninja Dolls.

On the Ending of John Green’s young adult novel “Paper Towns”

Some time ago I made a song/video about me not having the novel “Paper Towns”. It actually won me a copy of the book signed by its author John Green. That made me very happy! I started reading it last week. That was a mistake, because only a few pages into the story I was hooked. But I had to work. And to eat. And to sleep. Still, I finished it before the weekend and wanted to write couple of things about it ever since.

  1. The book is good! John Green writes for young adults, so technically I’m not a member of the target group. And I must say that his first two books (“Looking for Alaska” and “An Abundance of Katherines”) were very enjoyable, but not, like, a must-buy for each and everyone. But this time around, well, “Paper Towns” is still not a must-buy; but I totally recommend it to anyone looking for, well, a young adult novel that is original in its conception, excellent in its execution, and very enjoyable in its language. Here’s just a couple of (not necessarily representative) quotes to give you an idea:
    • Nothing is as boring as other people’s dreams. (p. 86)
    • Peeing is like a good book in that it is very, very hard to stop once you start. (p. 183)
    • As much as life can suck, it always beats the alternative. (p. 287)

    Anyway, let me reiterate: it’s a good book. Buy it. Read it.

  2. This part contains major spoilers, so read on at our own risk. I enjoyed reading the book and was sad to see it end. The last few pages managed to give the plot a satisfying conclusion. Almost. I was left wondering, how it actually ended. Do they get together? Or is the last scene more of an afterthought that’s to vanish as soon as the sun comes up again? Ultimately, I can live with this ambiguity. I can live with it, because I figured that I can’t relate to Q. I mean, he’s the narrator and I like him more than some other of the other characters. Still, when he finally finds Margo, he comes up with his idea about the vessel and about the future. And I find it not very convincing. Sure, a big lesson at the end wouldn’t have the suited the story. Neither would have an overly romantic happy ending. I just wanted to remark that I preferred the little chunks of wisdom throughout the book. The ending was quite charming, but it didn’t add anything to what I got out of the story. But then again, I’m not the target audience and I still recommend you read “Paper Towns”.

Today’s music recommendation goes out to everybody who enjoys the mainstream kind of melodic punk rock. “The Days that Follow…” by Multiball (Vampster-Review) is a strong album that could totally be in the charts. The vocals are rather clean and melodic, the music itself rather powerful than catchy. It’s not the most original album; yet it sound rather fresh compared to many successful pop punk albums out there.

Good News and a List

John Green commented on my recent video:

Wow, this is amazingly awesome. Favorited. And yes, this totally wins a book. Message me your address. Thanks for being awesome; this made my day!

How very flattering! A great way to start my week; looks like I’ll soon have Paper Towns. Then Hank Green‘s song The List will hopefully make sense to me. Meanwhile, I made a list of all the other books I sang about. The links are mainly to Wikipedia articles, because there readers can easily switch from German to their preferred language. Funnily, most (but not all) of my very favourite books ended up at the very beginning.